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Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.88 xG and Hannover 96 1.17 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.59 / defence 0.98 against Hannover 96 attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 35% | Hannover 96 40%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53%, Hannover 96 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 63% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hannover 96's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights