SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln – Match Report

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.86 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.43 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.52 / defence 1.06 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 48%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, 1. FC Köln 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 69% of games, a blank that repeated today.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights