SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.52x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
20%
4.91
32%
3.16
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.29
1.43
1. FC Köln xG
4.91
20%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
5%
20.46
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.5 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.43 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.