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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg finished level at 1-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.12 xG and SV Elversberg 1.71 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against SV Elversberg attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 23% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 49%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 67%, SV Elversberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights