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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Holstein Kiel and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.23 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 29% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 46%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 71%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights