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Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Holstein Kiel 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Holstein Kiel 1-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.90 / defence 0.83 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.43, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 55% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 0.92 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights