🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out Dynamo Dresden 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel beat Dynamo Dresden 2-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.34 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.12 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.75 / defence 0.91 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 42% | Draw 27% | Dynamo Dresden 31%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 38%, Dynamo Dresden 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.06 PPG, Dynamo Dresden 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights