Holstein Kiel 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Holstein Kiel face 1. FC Magdeburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Holstein-Stadion plays host to Holstein Kiel versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Holstein Kiel at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
1. FC Magdeburg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Holstein Kiel 3–3 1. FC Magdeburg — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 67% and 1. FC Magdeburg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 64% | 1. FC Magdeburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.63 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.881 / defence 0.894 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.252 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.277. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.252, which lifts their away xG to 1.43. Data: built from Holstein Kiel's last 32 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 66.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 41% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.43 | Draw 3.80 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Holstein Kiel are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Holstein Kiel 50% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 41% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Holstein Kiel 1.63 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.881 / def 0.894 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.252 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.43
1. FC Magdeburg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg FAQs
What time does Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 41% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.88) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.25x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Holstein Kiel's last 32 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.80
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.06
1.43
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.43 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 66 games, going 17W 15D 34L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.35 PPG from 66 outings (25W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.35 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 10W 6D 17L across their last 33 home games, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 33 away games (15W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.71 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
Holstein Kiel (Home) vs 1. FC Magdeburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
❓ Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg Form FAQs
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 17W 15D 34L in their last 66 games (1.00 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 25W 14D 27L in their last 66 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.09 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Magdeburg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
4
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Holstein Kiel have won 1, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 54%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Holstein Kiel and 64% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Holstein Kiel's games and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 79% of 1. FC Magdeburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Holstein Kiel 1-3 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.63 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.88 / defence 0.89 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.25 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 41% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 64%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.00 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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