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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Holstein Kiel.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat Holstein Kiel 1-3 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.63 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.88 / defence 0.89 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.25 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 41% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 64%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.00 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights