Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Olympiastadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympiastadion this season.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Hertha BSC. A 1.90 PPG lead over SV Darmstadt 98 (2.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hertha BSC lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 50% versus SV Darmstadt 98 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 52% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.45 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.025 / defence 0.872 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.741 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Hertha BSC games / 44 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 74% | Draw 16% | SV Darmstadt 98 9%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | SV Darmstadt 98 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hertha BSC 70% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 74% | Draw 16% | SV Darmstadt 98 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 49% | xG Hertha BSC 2.45 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.025 / def 0.872 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.741 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
49%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Olympiastadion.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 74% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (4 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 3 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (1.02) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 2.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.74x) against Hertha BSC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
74%
1.34
16%
6.12
9%
10.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.21
0.75
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.34
74%
Home win
6.12
16%
Draw
10.85
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
9%
11.61
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
1%
125.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.75 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 44 games, going 23W 10D 11L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (15W 16D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (3W 8D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.50 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.67 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 48%, SV Darmstadt 98 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hertha BSC) and 67% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Hertha BSC's games and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.