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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 20, as Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.07 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.72 / defence 0.81 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 32% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 39%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 49%, SV Darmstadt 98 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hertha BSC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights