Hertha BSC 2-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympiastadion Berlin plays host to Hertha BSC versus SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hertha BSC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.75 points per game. Last five: D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg arrive in superior form — a 0.55 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 100% and SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 75% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.07 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.164 / defence 1.072 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.730 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.288. Data: 36 Hertha BSC games / 2 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 61% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 16%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SSV Jahn Regensburg (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 90% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 61% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Hertha BSC 2.07 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.164 / def 1.072 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.730 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hertha BSC 2 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 61% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hertha BSC and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.73x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.32
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.01
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
2%
48.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.01 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SSV Jahn Regensburg by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 2 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Hertha BSC, 50% for SSV Jahn Regensburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hertha BSC and 50% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hertha BSC's games and 50% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hertha BSC's matches and 50% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do Hertha BSC and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 2.07 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.01 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.16 / defence 1.07 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.18, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 61% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 16%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 75%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.