Hertha BSC 3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Hertha BSC welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Olympiastadion Berlin. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Olympiastadion Berlin — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 71% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 74% | Eintracht Braunschweig 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.15 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.929 / defence 1.194 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.741 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.513. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.471 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Hertha BSC games / 42 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 54% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.55. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 70% | Eintracht Braunschweig 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 54% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Hertha BSC 2.15 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.929 / def 1.194 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.741 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hertha BSC 3 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 54% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Braunschweig's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.13
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.49
1.34
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
12%
8.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
3%
39.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.34 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 16W 11D 15L from 42 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 23L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.40 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 9W 6D 6L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 4W 2D 15L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.10 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 13W 6D 23L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.57 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Hertha BSC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 67%, Eintracht Braunschweig 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Hertha BSC and 67% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hertha BSC's games and 48% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Hertha BSC's matches and 67% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 2.15 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.34 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.74 / defence 1.47, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 54% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 74%, Eintracht Braunschweig 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.