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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 17, as Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.38 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.95 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.75 / defence 0.85 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 26%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 38%, Arminia Bielefeld 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hertha BSC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights