Hertha BSC 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Arminia Bielefeld travel to Olympiastadion to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 December 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Olympiastadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiastadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympiastadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hertha BSC are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 1 for Arminia Bielefeld and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 25% versus Arminia Bielefeld 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 38% | Arminia Bielefeld 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.38 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.751 / defence 0.854 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.843 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.316. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arminia Bielefeld bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Hertha BSC games / 16 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 26%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.85. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 20% | Arminia Bielefeld 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Hertha BSC 1.38 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.751 / def 0.854 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.843 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Arminia Bielefeld xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 December 2025 at Olympiastadion.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Hertha BSC 1 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 47% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (4 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 2 | Arminia Bielefeld 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.75x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.65
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.32
0.95
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.95 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 8W 3D 5L from 16 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arminia Bielefeld, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 8L across 16 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hertha BSC by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 4W 0D 3L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arminia Bielefeld's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 1.62 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.71 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 14%, Arminia Bielefeld 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Hertha BSC and 43% for Arminia Bielefeld.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 43% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 57% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 43% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 17, as Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.38 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.95 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.75 / defence 0.85 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 47% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 26%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 38%, Arminia Bielefeld 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.