Hertha BSC 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hertha BSC face 1. FC Nürnberg.

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Full Analysis

Olympiastadion plays host to Hertha BSC versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

Hertha BSC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.20 for 1. FC Nürnberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Hertha BSC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Hertha BSC 3–0 1. FC Nürnberg — a Hertha BSC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 54% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 53% | 1. FC Nürnberg 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hertha BSC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while 1. FC Nürnberg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.25 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.823 / defence 0.980 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.791 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.341. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 57 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 57.

Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Nürnberg 28%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.57 | Draw 3.06 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 40% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% (last 10 away games).

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