Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SSV Ulm 1846 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat SSV Ulm 1846 3-2 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.39 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.77 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Ulm 1846 outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.01 / defence 0.71 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.70 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 49% | Draw 32% | SSV Ulm 1846 18%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 50%, SSV Ulm 1846 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights