🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hannover 96 1-2 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.71 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 51% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 23%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 57%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights