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Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.01 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.18 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.04 / defence 0.76, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 29% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 38%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 56%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.65 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights