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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.35 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.47 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 34% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.56 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights