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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09 xG and VfL Bochum 1.04 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against VfL Bochum attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 34% | VfL Bochum 31%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, VfL Bochum 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights