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Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 36%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%, SV Darmstadt 98 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights