Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 5W 3D 2L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Merkur Spiel-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.70 (SV Darmstadt 98). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Fortuna Düsseldorf have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while SV Darmstadt 98 have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 64% and SV Darmstadt 98 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% | SV Darmstadt 98 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.849 / defence 0.940 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.944 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.363. Data: 39 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 39 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 36%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.849 / def 0.940 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.944 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 3 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 36% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.85x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.63
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.42
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.21 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 39 games, going 16W 12D 11L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.33 PPG from 39 outings (14W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.54 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.64 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 67%.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 16W 12D 11L in their last 39 games (1.54 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 14W 10D 15L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.42 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Darmstadt 98 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%, SV Darmstadt 98 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 74% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 79% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 74% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 36%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%, SV Darmstadt 98 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.