🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.78 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.87 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.83 / defence 1.21 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.17 / defence 1.53, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights