Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.16 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.22 / defence 1.24 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.75 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights