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Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.04 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 45%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%, SC Paderborn 07 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights