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Stalemate at Fortuna Düsseldorf's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Fortuna Düsseldorf and Preußen Münster drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.30 xG and Preußen Münster 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Preußen Münster landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Preußen Münster attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | Draw 31% | Preußen Münster 29%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, Preußen Münster 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights