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Stalemate at Fortuna Düsseldorf's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.28 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Karlsruher SC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 29% | Karlsruher SC 34%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Karlsruher SC 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.51 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights