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Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.81 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.47 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 30%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, Holstein Kiel 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights