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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.85 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.47 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.95 / defence 0.68, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 22% | Draw 27% | FC Schalke 04 52%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, FC Schalke 04 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights