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Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Schalke 04.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat FC Schalke 04 2-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.78 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.52 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.11 / defence 1.17 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 43% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 32%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%, FC Schalke 04 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights