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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out Arminia Bielefeld 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.24 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 43% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 31%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%, Arminia Bielefeld 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.00 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights