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Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 31, as Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 3-3 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.55 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%, 1. FC Nürnberg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights