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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.11 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.67 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 34%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, 1. FC Magdeburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.39 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights