FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC St. Pauli face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host SV Darmstadt 98 at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC St. Pauli 1.10 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of FC St. Pauli's games and 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's (from FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, FC St. Pauli have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2026, ended FC St. Pauli 0–0 SV Darmstadt 98 — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC St. Pauli trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 60% versus SV Darmstadt 98 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 53% | SV Darmstadt 98 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC St. Pauli surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.74 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.777 / defence 1.121 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.665 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.161. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.74. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.359 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC St. Pauli's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 11 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 45.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 57% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 18%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.74 | Draw 4.03 | SV Darmstadt 98 5.61. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 57% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC St. Pauli 1.74 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.777 / def 1.121 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.665 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.86
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Millerntor-Stadion.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 57% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 0.78x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 11 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.03
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.60
0.86
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
31.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.86 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 8W 14D 23L from 45 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 14L across 45 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC St. Pauli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 6W 6D 10L from their last 22 home games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 3W 8D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 14D 23L in their last 45 games (0.84 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 16D 14L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.09 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Nov 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won SV Darmstadt 98 4-0 FC St. Pauli.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 64%, SV Darmstadt 98 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FC St. Pauli and 64% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 27% of games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC St. Pauli's games and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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