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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out SC Paderborn 07 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Veltins Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 0.91 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.90 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.86 / defence 0.69 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 33%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 57%, SC Paderborn 07 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights