1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours 1. FC Heidenheim (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Heidenheim face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Heidenheim. A 0.80 PPG lead over SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, 1. FC Heidenheim have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
The historical record gives 1. FC Heidenheim a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 62% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 68% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.26 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.272 / defence 1.253 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.082 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.454. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 1. FC Heidenheim games / 40 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 46% | Draw 20% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.17 | Draw 5.00 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.86. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 46% | Draw 20% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.26 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.272 / def 1.253 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.082 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.97
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Voith-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 46% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 35% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 3W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.27) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (1.08x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 5/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
46%
2.20
20%
5.03
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
4.23
1.97
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.20
46%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.36
Clean Sheet
14%
7.17
10%
9.59
Win to Nil
6%
15.76
4%
27.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.97 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 9D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.08 PPG from 40 outings (11W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.08 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.38 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.30 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: 1. FC Heidenheim have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
3
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 3 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for 1. FC Heidenheim, 70% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 65% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 30% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.