1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours 1. FC Heidenheim (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Heidenheim face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Voith-Arena this season.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Heidenheim. A 0.80 PPG lead over SpVgg Greuther Fürth (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Historically, 1. FC Heidenheim have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.

The historical record gives 1. FC Heidenheim a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 63% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 68% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.64 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.415 / defence 1.424 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.049 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.645. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 3 1. FC Heidenheim games / 37 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 44% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.27 | Draw 5.56 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 18% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 88% | BTTS probability 85% | Total xG 5.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 88% — a total xG of 5.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 85% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 2.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 5.10 combined xG gives a 88% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 85%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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