Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Hertha BSC travel to LEAG Energie Stadion to take on Energie Cottbus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Energie Cottbus stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Energie Cottbus at LEAG Energie Stadion this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Energie Cottbus in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Energie Cottbus 80% and Hertha BSC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Energie Cottbus 70% | Hertha BSC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Energie Cottbus 1.15 xG and Hertha BSC 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Energie Cottbus attack 0.923 / defence 1.297 | Hertha BSC attack 1.492 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. Hertha BSC's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.492 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Energie Cottbus games / 44 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 18% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 62%. Fair-value odds: Energie Cottbus 5.56 | Draw 5.00 | Hertha BSC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Energie Cottbus 100% | Hertha BSC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: LEAG Energie Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 18% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Energie Cottbus 1.15 / Hertha BSC 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Energie Cottbus attack 0.923 / def 1.297 | Hertha BSC attack 1.492 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Energie Cottbus xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Hertha BSC xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at LEAG Energie Stadion.
Where is Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at LEAG Energie Stadion.
What competition is Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC part of?
Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Energie Cottbus a 18% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 62% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Energie Cottbus and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Energie Cottbus and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Energie Cottbus and Hertha BSC in?
Energie Cottbus (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Energie Cottbus's attack rating (0.92) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Energie Cottbus's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
18%
5.57
20%
5.00
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Energie Cottbus xG
Total xG
3.41
2.26
Hertha BSC xG
5.57
18%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
10%
9.56
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
2%
53.25
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Energie Cottbus and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Energie Cottbus and 2.26 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Energie Cottbus's recent record stands at 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Energie Cottbus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 1D 0L across 10 games — 2.80 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hertha BSC by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Energie Cottbus heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Energie Cottbus have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 4W 1D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Energie Cottbus are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 2.30 scored and 0.80 conceded. Energie Cottbus's scoring rate against Hertha BSC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 60%.
Defensively: Hertha BSC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Energie Cottbus
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Energie Cottbus and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 (2.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Energie Cottbus at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Energie Cottbus at home: 1.00 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Energie Cottbus or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Energie Cottbus have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 40%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Energie Cottbus at 100%, Hertha BSC at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Energie Cottbus and 80% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Energie Cottbus home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Energie Cottbus play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Energie Cottbus's games and 60% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Energie Cottbus's matches and 80% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Energie Cottbus and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Energie Cottbus have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.