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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.28 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.89 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.76 / defence 0.88 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | Draw 32% | SSV Ulm 1846 24%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, SSV Ulm 1846 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 0.91 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights