Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 meet at Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Eintracht-Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SSV Ulm 1846 have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 0.70 for SSV Ulm 1846 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1 for SSV Ulm 1846 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with SSV Ulm 1846 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Braunschweig — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SSV Ulm 1846 — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 48% versus SSV Ulm 1846 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 52% | SSV Ulm 1846 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.28 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.759 / defence 0.875 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.759 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.341. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 23 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | Draw 32% | SSV Ulm 1846 24%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | SSV Ulm 1846 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% | SSV Ulm 1846 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | Draw 32% | SSV Ulm 1846 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.28 / SSV Ulm 1846 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.759 / def 0.875 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.759 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
0.89
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 44% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 0 | SSV Ulm 1846 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.76) and SSV Ulm 1846's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SSV Ulm 1846's attack (0.76x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
44%
2.28
32%
3.13
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.17
0.89
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 0.89 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 5W 6D 12L from 23 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Ulm 1846, meanwhile, have gone 3W 9D 11L across 23 games — 0.78 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Eintracht Braunschweig against 0.78 for SSV Ulm 1846. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SSV Ulm 1846's away record stands at 1W 5D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 1.04 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 6D 12L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 3W 9D 11L in their last 23 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.36 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Eintracht Braunschweig or SSV Ulm 1846 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Braunschweig have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SSV Ulm 1846 in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
Draws
1
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846?
SSV Ulm 1846 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 46%, SSV Ulm 1846 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 46% (SSV Ulm 1846).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 27% of games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SSV Ulm 1846?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 54% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 46% of SSV Ulm 1846's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Eintracht Braunschweig and SSV Ulm 1846 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.28 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.89 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.76 / defence 0.88 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | Draw 32% | SSV Ulm 1846 24%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, SSV Ulm 1846 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 0.91 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.