Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 October 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 3W 4D 3L at Eintracht-Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Paderborn 07 are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Eintracht Braunschweig, 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with Eintracht Braunschweig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 58% and SC Paderborn 07 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 51% | SC Paderborn 07 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.038 / defence 1.303 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.953 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.301. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 41 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 26% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 49%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | SC Paderborn 07 2.04. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 90% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 26% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 / SC Paderborn 07 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.038 / def 1.303 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.953 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.62
SC Paderborn 07 xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 26% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (6 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 2W | Draws 2 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Braunschweig's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
26%
3.81
25%
4.05
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.73
1.62
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
5%
19.17
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.62 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 11W 13D 17L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 10L across 41 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 7W 7D 6L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 8W 9D 3L across 20 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.59 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 63%.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.40 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Eintracht Braunschweig or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Braunschweig have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
3
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 65%, SC Paderborn 07 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 45% (SC Paderborn 07).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 60% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 45% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.62 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 0.79, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 26% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 49%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 51%, SC Paderborn 07 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.