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Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Braunschweig beat SC Paderborn 07 3-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 0.85 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.54 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.00 / defence 0.76, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 19% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 52%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Braunschweig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 51%, SC Paderborn 07 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights