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Prediction vindicated as Preußen Münster edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06 xG and Preußen Münster 1.10 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Preußen Münster outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Preußen Münster attack 0.75 / defence 0.86, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 32% | Draw 34% | Preußen Münster 34%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 54%, Preußen Münster 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preußen Münster win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights