Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Eintracht Braunschweig take on 1. FC Köln.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Köln make the trip to Eintracht-Stadion to face Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eintracht-Stadion, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. 1. FC Köln are 1.40 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eintracht Braunschweig lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–5 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 45% versus 1. FC Köln 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 53% | 1. FC Köln 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 0.94 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.740 / defence 0.817 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.752 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.502. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 19 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 33%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | 1. FC Köln 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% | 1. FC Köln 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 0.94 / 1. FC Köln 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.740 / def 0.817 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.752 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
0.92
1. FC Köln xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 2 1. FC Köln.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 33% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.74) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.75x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
2.99
34%
2.93
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
1.86
0.92
1. FC Köln xG
2.99
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 14.3 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 0.92 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Eintracht Braunschweig have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 11D 28L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln's form line: 15W 16D 22L from 53 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Eintracht Braunschweig against 1.15 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 6W 10D 10L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.15 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 14W 11D 28L in their last 53 games (1.00 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 15W 16D 22L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.42 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 42%, 1. FC Köln 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 35% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 31% of games; 1. FC Köln in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play 1. FC Köln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 54% of 1. FC Köln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 35% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 0.94 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.92 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.74 / defence 0.82 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.75 / defence 0.84, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 53%, 1. FC Köln 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.00 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.