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SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 2.12 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.62 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.28 / defence 1.36, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 49% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 40%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Arminia Bielefeld arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights