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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 26, as Arminia Bielefeld and SC Paderborn 07 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.10 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 29% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 40%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 48%, SC Paderborn 07 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights