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1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Ulm 1846.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat SSV Ulm 1846 2-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.76 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.04 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 24% | SSV Ulm 1846 22%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 67%, SSV Ulm 1846 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights