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Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.67 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 48% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 26%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 61%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights