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Stalemate at 1. FC Nürnberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.21 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.35 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 34% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 40%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 68%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.30 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights